The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.     

Assessing the role of bark- and wood-boring insects in the decline of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in the Swiss Rhone valley

Abstract.  1. In several dry inner Alpine valleys higher mortality levels of pine have been observed in recent years. This paper evaluates the role of xylophagous insects in the current pine decline and the influence of climate change on the infestation dynamics.
2. More than 200 trees of different levels of crown transparency (needle loss) were felled between 2001 and 2005 and sections of them incubated in insect emergence traps. Colonisation densities were related to the transparency level of each host tree at the time of attack.
3. Trees with more than 80% needle loss were colonised most frequently, but the breeding density was highest in trees with 65–80% needle loss.
4. The scolytine Ips acuminatus and the buprestid Phaenops cyanea colonised trees with 30–90% needle loss in high densities. The bark beetle Tomicus minor was less aggressive, preferring trees with 60–85% needle loss. The hymenopteran Sirex noctilio and the cerambycid Acanthocinus aedilis were restricted to greatly weakened trees with 50–85% needle loss. Most species colonised trees that had experienced a decline in vigour, that is an increase in crown transparency shortly before attack.
5. The infestation dynamics of P. cyanea covaried with the drought index as well as with temperature.
6. Increased temperatures not only trigger a drought stress rendering the host trees susceptible to insect attack, but also accelerate insect development. As more frequent drought periods are likely as a result of climate change, even trees only slightly or temporarily weakened will be more subject to attack by aggressive species such as I. acuminatus and P. cyanea .     

Threshold response of Madagascar's littoral forest to sea-level rise

Aim Coastal biodiversity hotspots are globally threatened by sea‐level rise. As such it is important to understand how ecosystems resist, respond and adapt to sea‐level rise. Using pollen, geochemistry, charcoal and diatom records in conjunction with previously published palaeoclimatic records, we investigated the mechanism, interactions and ecosystem response and resilience of Madagascar's littoral forest to late Holocene sea‐level rise. Location Sediment sequences were collected along the south‐east coast of Madagascar in two adjacent habitats in Mandena; the highly diverse littoral forest fragment and species‐poor Erica‐matrix. Methods We used a multi‐proxy approach to investigate the relative influence of environmental changes on the littoral ecosystem. We reconstructed past vegetation and fire dynamics over the past 6500 years at two sites in the littoral forest using fossil pollen and macrofossil charcoal contained in sedimentary sequences. Alongside these records we reconstructed past marine transgressions from the same sedimentary sequences using geochemical analyses, and a salinity and drought index through the analysis of fossil diatoms. Results Our findings indicated that it was the synergistic effect of sea‐level rise coupled with rainfall deficits that triggered a threshold event with a switch from two types of littoral forest (an open Uapaca forest and a closed littoral forest fragment) to an Erica–Myrica heath/grassland occurring in approximately less than 100 years. Resilience to sea‐level rise differed in the two adjacent habitats, suggesting that the littoral forest fragment was more resilient to the impacts of sea‐level change and aridity than the open Uapaca woodland. Conclusions We demonstrated that the littoral ecosystem was influenced by late Holocene sea‐level rise and climatic desiccation. While climate change‐integrated conservation strategies address the effects of climate change on species distribution and dispersal, our work suggests that more attention should be paid to the impacts of interactive climatic variables that affect ecosystem thresholds.     

Mass mortality in Northwestern Mediterranean rocky benthic communities: effects of the 2003 heat wave

Late in summer 2003, extensive mass mortality of at least 25 rocky benthic macro-invertebrate species (mainly gorgonians and sponges) was observed in the entire Northwestern (NW) Mediterranean region, affecting several thousand kilometers of coastline. We were able to characterize the mortality event by studying six areas covering the main regions of the NW Mediterranean basin. The degree of impact on each study area was quantified at 49 sites by estimating the proportion of colonies affected in populations of several gorgonian species compared with reference data obtained in years without mortality signs. According to these data, the western areas (Catalan coast and Balearic Islands) were the least affected, while the central areas (Provence coast and Corsica-Sardinia) showed a moderate impact. The northernmost and eastern areas (Gulf of Genoa and Gulf of Naples) displayed the highest impact, with almost 80% of gorgonian colonies affected. The heat wave of 2003 in Europe caused an anomalous warming of seawater, which reached the highest temperatures ever recorded in the studied regions, between 1 and 3 °C above the climatic values (mean and maximum). Because this exceptional warming was observed in the depth ranges most affected by the mortality, it seems likely that the 2003 anomalous temperature played a key role in the observed mortality event. A correlation analysis between temperature conditions and degree of impact seems to support this hypothesis. Under the present climate warming trend, new mass mortality events may occur in the near future, possibly driving a major biodiversity crisis in the Mediterranean Sea.     

Long‐term change within a Neotropical forest: assessing differential functional and floristic responses to disturbance and drought

Disentangling the relative roles of biotic and abiotic forces influencing forest structure, function, and local community composition continues to be an important goal in ecology. Here, utilizing two forest surveys 20‐year apart from a Central American dry tropical forest, we assess the relative role of past disturbance and local climatic change in the form of increased drought in driving forest dynamics. We observe: (i) a net decrease in the number of trees; (ii) a decrease in total forest biomass by 7.7 Mg ha^?1 but when calculated on subquadrat basis the biomass per unit area did not change indicating scale sensitivity of forest biomass measures; (iii) that the decrease in the number of stems occurred mainly in the smallest sizes, and in more moist and evergreen habitats; (iv) that there has been an increase in the proportion of trees that are deciduous, compound leaved and are canopy species, and a concomitant reduction in trees that are evergreen, simple‐leaved, and understory species. These changes are opposite to predictions based on recovery from disturbance, and have resulted in (v) a uniform multivariate shift from a more mesic to a more xeric forest. Together, our results show that over relatively short time scales, community composition and the functional dominance may be more responsive to climate change than recovery to past disturbances. Our findings point to the importance of assessing proportional changes in forest composition and not just changes in absolute numbers. Our findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that tropical tree species exhibit differential sensitivity to changes in precipitation. Predicted future decreases in rainfall may result in quick differential shifts in forest function, physiognomy, and species composition. Quantifying proportional functional composition offers a basis for a predictive framework for how the structure, and diversity of tropical forests will respond to global change.     

Flowering phenology, fruiting success and progressive deterioration of pollination in an early-flowering geophyte

Spatio-temporal patterns of snowmelt and flowering times affect fruiting success in Erythronium grandiflorum Pursh (Liliaceae) in subalpine western Colorado, USA. From 1990 to 1995, I measured the consistency across years of snowmelt patterns and flowering times along a permanent transect. In most years since 1993, I have monitored fruit set in temporal cohorts (early- to late-flowering groups of plants) at one site. To assess ‘pollination limitation’, I have also conducted supplemental hand-pollination experiments at various times through the blooming season. The onset of blooming is determined by snowmelt, with the earliest years starting a month before the latest years owing to variation in winter snowpack accumulation. Fruit set is diminished or prevented entirely by killing frosts in some years, most frequently but not exclusively for the earlier cohorts. When frosts do not limit fruit set, pollination limitation is frequent, especially in the earlier cohorts. Pollination limitation is strongest for middle cohorts: it tends to be negated by frost in early cohorts and ameliorated by continuing emergence of bumble-bee queens in later cohorts. This lily appears to be poorly synchronized with its pollinators. Across the years of the study, pollination limitation appears to be increasing, perhaps because the synchronization is getting worse.     

Decline in the frequency and benefits of multiple brooding in great tits as a consequence of a changing environment

For multiple-brooded species, the number of reproductive events per year is a major determinant of an individual''s fitness. Where multiple brooding is facultative, its occurrence is likely to change with environmental conditions, and, as a consequence, the current rates of environmental change could have substantial impacts on breeding patterns. Here we examine temporal population-level trends in the proportion of female great tits (Parus major) producing two clutches per year (‘double brooding’) in four long-term study populations in The Netherlands, and show that the proportion of females that double brood has declined in all populations, with the strongest decline taking place in the last 30 years of the study. For one of the populations, for which we have data on caterpillar abundance, we show that the probability that a female produces a second clutch was related to the timing of her first clutch relative to the peak in caterpillar abundance, and that the probability of double brooding declined over the study period. We further show that the number of recruits from the second clutch decreased significantly over the period 1973–2004 in all populations. Our results indicate that adjustment to changing climatic conditions may involve shifts in life-history traits other than simply the timing of breeding.     

Drought and the consequences of El Niño in Borneo: a case study of figs

Borneo has a perhumid climate but occasional severe droughts have an important impact. Droughts may affect the composition and size structure of plant communities through differential mortality or, via their impact on the availability of plant resources, affect plant–animal interactions. From January to April 1998, northern Borneo suffered a very severe drought linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation event of 1997–1998. In this article, the impacts of this drought on the rain forest at Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, are considered with special reference to a keystone plant group, the figs. Small fires entered the edge of the forest from the roadside, killing saplings, climbers, and understory trees. Community-wide mortality for adult trees was 0–7 times higher than in nondrought years, with larger trees showing a greater proportional increase. In figs, mortality was significantly higher in pioneers, but hemiepiphytes and roadside species were unaffected. Phenology was substantially affected. Leaf and flower/fruit production decreased or ceased during the drought and increased suddenly following renewed rain. Pollinators of dioecious figs became locally extinct during the drought, and other plant–animal interactions may also have been disrupted. The frequency and severity of droughts has increased substantially in the past three decades, and climate models suggest this may be the result of global warming. The impacts of the 1998 drought at Lambir Hills National Park suggest that, should this trend continue, a substantial alteration of habitats and overall loss of biodiversity can be expected in Borneo.     

Climate change impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer

Climate variability and the rapid warming of seas undoubtedly have huge ramifications for biological processes such as reproduction. As such, gametogenesis and spawning were investigated at two sites over 200 km apart on the south coast of Ireland in an ecosystem engineer, the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule. Both sites are classed as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), but are of different water quality. Cerastoderma edule plays a significant biological role by recycling nutrients and affecting sediment structure, with impacts upon assemblage biomass and functional diversity. It plays a key role in food webs, being a common foodstuff for a number of marine birds including the oystercatcher. Both before and during the study (early 2010–mid 2011), Ireland experienced its two coldest winters for 50 years. As the research demonstrated only slight variation in the spawning period between sites, despite site differences in water and environmental quality, temperature and variable climatic conditions were the dominant factor controlling gametogenesis. The most significant finding was that the spawning period in the cockle extended over a greater number of months compared with previous studies and that gametogenesis commenced over winter rather than in spring. Extremely cold winters may impact on the cockle by accelerating and extending the onset and development of gametogenesis. Whether this impact is positive or negative would depend on the associated events occurring on which the cockle depends, that is, presence of primary producers and spring blooms, which would facilitate conversion of this extended gametogenesis into successful recruitment.